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Title : Election Tour 2017 - all over bar the shouting
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Election Tour 2017 - all over bar the shouting

This year's council elections in Carmarthenshire are likely to be the most interesting in many years, and the retirement of many veteran councillors will mean that whatever happens, the new council will have a very different look and feel.

Unsurprisingly, the campaign has been a story of two very different halves. Although there are some very keenly fought contests in some wards outside Llanelli, the campaign has been largely a clean and civilised affair.

In Llanelli things have been very different, with a campaign characterised in many places by bitterness, dirty tricks and mud slinging. There are those who argue that all the parties, including the Independents, are to blame, but in reality the toxic culture which has thrived within the local Labour Party is the root cause. It is not just the personal attacks, but also Llanelli Labour's prediliction for dog whistle politics that makes the town different. In the past we have seen campaigns based on stirring up resentment against Polish residents, and this year the Welsh language and fear mongering about the future of Parc Howard have dominated much of the 'debate'.

A key feature of Llanelli Labour's campaign style is the use of unofficial groups to carry out its dirty work, and this year that task fell to the anti-Welsh group in Llangennech and the guerilla troll tactics deployed by CUSC-SOPAP.

This blog has concentrated on Llanelli during the campaign, partly because it generated the most newsworthy stories, but also in order to expose the nature of Labour's campaign which has often stooped to intimidation of opponents, including repeatedly driving past rivals' homes, reversing up, cat calling and staring. Facebook has featured prominently in the intimidation which has ranged from the childish to the downright sinister.

A defeat for some of Labour's most prominent players in Llanelli is the best hope for a different kind of politics in the town, and it would give the party itself an opportunity to clean up its act, but you would not want to bet on that.

So what about the bigger picture?

Plaid was 9 seats short of an overall majority in the old council. A majority has always eluded the party and has often looked like a very tall order, but if Labour takes a hammering and the Independents continue their long-term decline, the prize may be within the party's grasp this time.

Expect Labour to lose ground in the Amman Valley and Llanelli. Independent losses in some of the rural wards could be partly offset by gains in places like Dafen.

But there are many unknowns. Many of the contests will turn on local factors, and nobody knows what impact the UK general election campaign will have on today's vote.

The next 24 hours are going to be interesting.

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